Top 20 Red Sox Prospects

Sam Federman

July 2nd, 2022

As the All-Star Break and MLB Draft approaches, it’s time for me to release my first Red Sox Prospect Rankings. Players that have made their Major League debut are not listed, which means no Connor Wong, Jeter Downs, Jarren Duran, Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold, or Kutter Crawford.

1. Marcelo Mayer, Age 19, SS, Salem Red Sox

Mayer has come out very strong in his first full season of pro ball despite dealing with nagging injuries. In 199 PA’s, Mayer has walked 11.1% of the time and hit 27 extra-base hits. His Isolated Power sits at .236, and he rocks a high BABIP thanks to a 31.9% Line Drive Rate. Mayer has also been voted as one of the best defenders in the Red Sox minor leagues, as the top draft pick was comped to Brandon Crawford on that side of the ball last year.

Mayer ranks in the 93rd Percentile of MiLB xwOBA for Single-A Salem. His 141 wRC+ ranks in the top 15 of all A-ball hitters despite being 1.8 years younger than the average player in the league. He’s also stolen ten bases, which isn’t anything that will put you on the leaderboard in the minors, but it’s solid enough. His weakness has been the swing and miss, where he has a 16.6 SwStr% and 28.1 K%, which is not ideal for a top prospect, but as long as he’s walking and it doesn’t get out of control, it will not be detrimental to him as a prospect.

Mayer is the most well-rounded player in the Red Sox system, and he’s one of the very best prospects in baseball.

2. Brayan Bello, Age 23, RHP, Worcester Red Sox

Brayan Bello is the Red Sox most hyped up pitching prospect in a long time, and I still don’t think he’s hyped enough. Many updated lists have him ranked at #3 or #4, but his ceiling is high enough that he ranks at #2 on my list.

Starting the season at AA Portland, Bello started 6 games, striking out 42 hitters, walking 12, and generating 62.5% ground-balls. In that span, he sported a 2.66 xFIP and 1.60 ERA along with a 19.3 SwStr% through 33.2 Innings. After that, he was called up to Worcester, where he’s excelled. He leads AAA Pitchers in both GB% and SwStr%, as well as xFIP at 2.64.

Bello now throws a sinker that touches 99 MPH as his primary fastball, with his main secondary pitches being a mid-80’s gyro slider, and a high 80’s changeup, which many consider to be his best pitch. He’s struggled at times with command, but it’s not detrimental, as his walk rates are only barely scraping double digits. With Bello’s repertoire, there’s a sky-high ceiling for him in the Majors, and he may make his debut sooner rather than later.

3. Triston Casas, Age 22, 1B, Worcester Red Sox

Casas probably has the highest floor in the Red Sox system. The left handed hitting first baseman leads AAA in Hard-Hit% (per Sports Info Solutions) and has put up impressive discipline numbers throughout his time in the Minors. He pairs his discipline with very solid raw power, maxing out at around 112 MPH. He’s hit multiple 470+ foot moonshots, as you’d expect from somebody with a 6'4, 252 pound frame.

The Sox 2018 First Round Pick has been out since May 17th with a sprained ankle, but Casas started his rehab in Fort Myers this week, and should be back before too long. He already has a 117 Steamer wRC+, and he may be in the Majors before the end of the season if his return from injury goes well.

4. Nick Yorke, Age 20, 2B, Greenville Drive

Nick Yorke was the system’s biggest riser in 2021, but 2022 has been somewhat of a step back for the 2020 First Round Pick. In his 2021 debut season, Yorke had a 177 wRC+, 12.5 BB%, 13.7 K%, and .236 ISO in his last 351 plate appearances split between A and High A. This performance landed Yorke in top 25’s preseason, and it was justified.

He has the best hit tool in the Red Sox organization, pairing his discipline and bat-to-ball skills with solid raw power, maxing out at around 110 MPH. While he doesn’t have the game power to be a major home run threat in MLB, he certainly possesses the ability to sustain high BABIP and low K% with manageable power.

In 2022, his ground-ball rate has gone up from 41% to 51%, his K% has risen to 23.2, and his BB% has dropped to 9.1. Yorke’s floor and ceiling however is still a question. He doesn’t have a spectacular glove at 2B, and has been set back with injuries and poor performance in 2022, raising a ton of questions for me.

Does he have the glove to stick at 2B, does he have the power to move to a corner? There’s a decent chance that the answer to both of those questions is no, in which case he ends up in no-man’s land. Yorke still has a high ceiling with his hit tool, and his 2021 performance justifies this ranking, but it very well be that Yorke is used as a trade chip.

5. Ceddanne Rafaela, Age 21, OF/IF, Portland Sea Dogs

Ceddanne Rafaela has a ton of similarities to Mookie Betts. Both are short in stature, possess elite speed, elite defense in multiple positions, and hit for more power than the frame suggests. Every time there’s a Rafaela video on Twitter, people salivate about how similar his swing looks to that of the 2018 AL MVP.

Rafaela has dominated at A+ and AA this year, putting up a .271 ISO and 150 wRC+ between the levels. Rafaela has 22 doubles, 6 triples, 14 home runs, and 17 stolen bases in 66 games, which is a testament to his offensive skillset. He’s been perhaps the biggest riser in the organization this year, dropping his GB% and raising his FB% while keeping his LD% similar, and not striking out at a detrimental clip.

The most exciting thing however about Rafaela’s game is his defensive versatility. He has played at SS, 2B, and 3B, but he seems most likely to make his home in the outfield, where he’s made jaw-dropping plays all year.

Rafaela is one of the highest ceiling prospects in the organization, and despite the risk provided by the sample size of his offensive breakout, I’m willing to rank him in the top 5

6. Brandon Walter, Age 25, LHP, Worcester Red Sox

Brandon Walter hadn’t pitched above High A until this season, but in 2022, he shined in 9 AA starts before getting the call up to Worcester. His stint with the Sea Dogs was incredibly impressive, striking out 68 hitters and walking just 3 in 50 innings of work, while also generating 52.1% ground-balls.

He got rocked in his AAA debut, but in his second AAA start, he went 6 innings of 1 run ball. Walter is currently out with a neck strain with no timetable to return. Walter will be 26 before the end of the season, so the Red Sox ideally want to see him in the Major Leagues sooner rather than later

Walter’s primary fastball has arm-side run, and sinking action, and while the organization considers it a sinker, Walter considers it to be a 2-seamer. He throws it around 94 MPH with 2100–2200 RPM’s from a low 3/4’s arm slot. His secondary pitches are a sweeping slider that he throws in the low 80’s, and a changeup that sits around 85 with higher spin rate than his fastball. Walter says he’s all about attacking the strike zone and trusting his stuff, which has improved drastically over the last few seasons.

7. Miguel Bleis, Age 18, OF, FSL Red Sox

Miguel Bleis oozes athleticism at 6–2, 170 pounds and just 18 years old. He’s an electric CF defender with plus speed and above-average raw power for his age. In just 15 games of center field so far in the Complex League, he’s worth 5 Davenport Runs, which is no perfect metric, but serves as an example of his defensive prowess.

FanGraphs said of Bleis that he is on par with the high school outfielders that tend to go in the middle of first rounds in the MLB Draft, and people around the industry are very high on him. Despite this, he hasn’t quite hit at a very high level in the minors yet, just a 93 wRC+ this year and a 109 wRC+ in the DSL last year with SwStr% hovering around 30%. At just 18 years old, there’s plenty of time to fix this, but as of right now, I can’t see him higher than 7.

8. Wikelman Gonzalez, Age 20, RHP, Salem Red Sox

Wikelman Gonzalez throws his fastball around 93–95 MPH, and touches 98 despite a below average frame for a pitcher. His changeup features a splitter-like downward action in the mid-80’s, but his curveball and slider are both pitches that are a little more divisive.

He turned 20 in March and is making his full-season debut this year, and his walk rates are higher than I’d have hoped, but Gonzalez has plenty of time to work that out.

The other concern about Gonzalez is that he may be forced to the bullpen if his third pitches don’t develop, but they’ve both shown potential, and he’s still very young, so I’m not going to penalize him heavily for it. Many questions still remain, but there’s no doubt that Gonzalez possesses an exciting profile.

9. Bryan Mata, Age 23, RHP, Portland Sea Dogs

Mata is the centurion of the Red Sox farm system, hitting 100 MPH in his 2022 return from Tommy John Surgery. While I’m a little bit lower than most on Mata, it stems from the fact that I’m concerned that he’ll be pushed to the bullpen with his injury history and question marks about secondary pitches and command.

He throws a low 80’s curveball, a hard slider, and a firm changeup, but they’re all works-in-progress compared to his fastball. Mata is a ground-ball machine, generating over 50% ground-balls at every step of his journey aside from rookie ball in 2016, and his return from TJ has been good. Mata hasn’t expanded past 4 innings yet in his first 5 appearances, but he’s been solid enough in the innings that he has pitched. Mata has put up a 33.3 K% and a 15.0 BB% so far.

Mata’s velocity is his calling card, and it’s going to be the factor that pushes him back onto the trajectory that he’d carved for himself pre-injury.

10. Eddinson Paulino, Age 20, UT, Salem Red Sox

Today (July 2, 2022) is Eddinson Paulino’s 20th birthday, and he’s played 2B, SS, 3B, LF, and CF this season for Salem. He’s done that while cutting his SwStr% in half, from 25.7 in Complex League last year, to 12.8 in A this year.

Paulino has a small, 5–10, 155 pound frame, and has good ability to make hard contact, but he doesn’t possess great home run power. Instead, Paulino makes his money with his ability to put the ball into the gap and run. In just 578 professional PA’s, he has 16 triples and 39 doubles, and this year, he’s put up 14 SB’s being caught just twice. Paulino is also a disciplined hitter from left-handed batters’ box, sporting an 11.0 BB% and 18.9 K% in A ball this year.

His power has shown up more recently, putting up a .220 ISO and 131 wRC+ despite a .289 BABIP in his last month of games. A 29.2 LD% usually yields a BABIP higher than .292, and I’d expect Paulino to positively regress in that department going forward. The combination of discipline, batted ball profile, speed, and defensive versatility is what puts the now 20 year old Paulino in my top 10.

11. Niko Kavadas, Age 23, 1B, Greenville Drive

Niko Kavadas had perhaps the best month in recent memory for a Minor Leaguer in June. In 106 PA’s between Salem and Greenville, Kavadas had an absured .613 ISO and .538 OBP, leading to a wRC+ at 288. The 11th round pick in 2021 from Notre Dame may be the steal of the draft due to his absurd raw power and discipline, but he fell far in the draft due to his age and perceived lack of defensive ability.

Kavadas had some of the highest exit velocities in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he’s clearly shown his power stroke from the left side this year, with 18 home runs in 65 games. Kavadas keeps a GB% below 30 and a SwStr% around 10, however, he’s been playing against competition that is younger than him. He’s obliterated High A in his 24 PA’s, hitting 4 homers, 2 doubles, and walking 4 times, putting him potentially on track for a call to Portland by the end of the season, where we’ll really see what he’s made of.

12. Blaze Jordan, Age 19, 1B/3B, Salem Red Sox

Blaze Jordan was a household name by the time he was 13 due to viral videos of him hitting 500 foot home runs, and the Red Sox drafted him in the third round of the 2020 Draft, seemingly with more fanfare than first round pick Nick Yorke.

To my surprise, it hasn’t exactly been Jordan’s raw power that has been the most eye-popping thing about his game this year, it’s been the hit tool that has stood out. Many were concerned about whether he’d turn into a massive strikeout accumulator with his power stroke, but Jordan has just a 13.8 SwStr% and 15.7 K% in his full-season debut at Salem.

Jordan is pretty much a bat only prospect, but knowing what we know about his raw power, the development of the hit tool has been very exciting. If Jordan trades some of his line drives for fly balls, he’s probably hitting some more round-trippers, but leading the Carolina League in doubles is just fine as well. Jordan is another player who had a scorching hot June, putting up 8 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, 15 walks, 13 strikeouts, and a 211 wRC+ in his last 117 PA’s.

He’s not going to make the jump to A+ soon, as Sox Director of Player Development Brian Abraham said in an interview with The Athletic, “He’s a younger guy who’s at the level where he should be.” But nevertheless, Jordan is still an exciting prospect for the Red Sox.

13. Alex Binelas, Age 22, 1B/3B, Portland Sea Dogs

Acquired in the Hunter Renfroe/Jackie Bradley Jr. trade this past offseason, Binelas had an excellent stint with the Greenville Drive, putting up a 127 wRC+ with a .250 ISO and 14.7 BB% in 259 PA’s before getting the call to Portland in late June.

While he hasn’t made a huge impact just yet, he’s walked 7 times in 6 games for the Sea Dogs, running his total up to 45 walks in 287 PA’s in the minors this year. Before getting the call to Portland, he led High A in Hard-Hit Rate (per Sports Info Solutions), and has power to all fields. Binelas has also shown speed this year, swiping 8 bags without being caught. However, he’s not much of a defender in the corner infield, similar to Blaze Jordan in that regard. If Binelas is going to make it, it’s going to be on the strength of his power and discipline.

14. Chris Murphy, Age 24, LHP, Worcester Red Sox

Murphy is a fascinating left handed pitching prospect, as he touches mid 90’s on his fastball with solid command, and throws a fading changeup, slow curve, and a tight slider. He is already 24 years old, but he just got the call up to AAA thanks to a strong stint at Portland. Murphy doesn’t generate a ton of grounders, but he’s put up really solid strikeout and walk numbers at every level of the minors (save his first start at AAA). 138 K and 44 BB in 109.2 IP between 2021 and 2022 in Portland proved that Murphy is a legit guy to watch in this farm system.

15. Matthew Lugo, Age 21, SS, Greenville Drive

Lugo is a fascinating prospect because of the chaos that he can cause once he gets the bat on the ball. He doesn’t have great power, but he has average power, and excellent speed once he does put the ball in play. Lugo has legged out 8 triples this year for Greenville, helping to boost his ISO to .231. While he doesn’t walk a ton, he also doesn’t strike out a ton, and he has 21 stolen bases in his lat 168 games in the minors. Lugo’s question marks come on defense, where he’s struggled with consistency despite flashing upside.

16. Gilberto Jimenez, Age 21, OF, Greenville Drive

Jimenez’s upside doesn’t come from his offense, it comes from his defense and base-running ability. Given a 70 grade speed from FanGraphs, Jimenez has stolen 24 bags since 2021 in 150 games between Single A and High A. He’s one of the very best athletes in the system, and watching him play on defense is a treat as well.

After a 2019 where he destroyed the now defunct level of Low-A ball at age 18, Jimenez has struggled to keep up the same offensive production that was putting him in Top 5’s in the system going into 2021. After just a 105 wRC+ and .099 ISO last year, it’s gotten worse this year, where Jimenez is now whiffing at 20.4% of all pitches and sporting just a 92 wRC+. However he has the tools to succeed, we all know that, the concerns just stem a ton from his ability to unlock those. He still has time, but he’s already gone down in the pecking order of the Sox future outfield.

17. Frank German, Age 24, RHP, Worcester Red Sox

Redefined as a reliever for 2022, German is a flamethrower with one of the best fastballs in the system, touching 99 MPH since becoming a reliever. German also throws a split-finger in the mid-80s, but like his fastball, it still needs development to reach its’ final form. German has a 2.76 ERA, 2.36 FIP, and 24.1 K-BB% since becoming a reliever in late August last year, and he could make the Majors as soon as this year if the Red Sox need a guy out of the bullpen. I’m very high on the upside that German possesses given the success he’s had with the velocity jump in the bullpen.

18. David Hamilton, Age 24, 2B/SS, Portland Sea Dogs

David Hamilton has played 161 minor league games over the last two years, and in those games, he has stolen 80 bases. Hamilton is frustrating as a player because he’s one of the few guys that you don’t want hitting a ton of fly balls, he’d be better served keeping the ball on the ground and using his legs to create offense. With his speed, he’s also an excellent defender, probably the best middle infield defender in the system, however his upside is capped by his age and his hitting for now.

19. Brainer Bonaci, Age 19, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Salem Red Sox

Bonaci has just an 8.3 SwStr% and a 16.7 BB% as a 19 year old in Salem this year, and he’s excelled at second base. The problem with Bonaci is that he has virtually no game power. He is a switch hitter, and he’s got decent speed, but the sell here is that he’ll get on base and play wherever you need him to. There’s still a lot of time to grow for him.

20. Ronaldo Hernandez, Age 24, C, Worcester Red Sox

Hernandez improved behind the dish in 2021, and his plus-plus arm combines to make him an average defender behind the dish, and with automated balls/strikes coming soon, his deficiencies as a receiver won’t limit him as much. With the bat, Hernandez swings at a lot, but he’s got good raw power, which makes him a potential average hitter.

He has been on the major league roster multiple times, but has not debuted yet. If Connor Wong were on this list, he’d be a decent amount higher than Hernandez, and Nathan Hickey is strongly making his case to be in the top 20 as well, so Hernandez is just one of a group of catching prospects.

Honorable Mentions:

Jay Groome

Tyler McDonough

Nathan Hickey

Thad Ward

Noah Song

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz

I did not include DSL prospects such as Freili Encarnacion because at this point, we simply do not have enough information to rank them.