On August 21, I went to Wrigley to see the (admittedly, pretty poor) Chicago Cubs take on the Brewers at home. On the mound for the Cubs was Justin Steele, and some of his season statistics took me by surprise (updated for his start on August 26):

24 Games Started

3.18 ERA (132 ERA+)

3.58 xERA

3.22 FIP

3.48 xFIP

0.317 BABIP

51.2 GB%

0.6 HR/9

9.5 K/9

To the majority of baseball fans, Justin Steele is a name that many probably haven’t heard of. This is understandable, as there isn’t a whole lot of exciting things coming from the Cubs at the major league level right now. That being said, Steele has been the most impressive Cubs pitcher this season, especially since the All-Star Break.

Who is Justin Steele?

Justin Steele made his debut for the Cubs during the 2021 season, showing potential with moderate success. He pitched to a 4.26 ERA/99 ERA+ in 20 games, in which 9 of those he had started. Although not the most impressive, he had shown flashes of his craft. In the first half of 2022, he pitched at a very similar level to the tune of a 4.15 ERA. Since the All-Star break though, it has been a completely different story.

Steele’s fantastic second half

Steele has carried a 0.98 ERA in his last 7 starts, as he has not allowed more than 3 ER in a start since June 23. In the meantime, he has brought his season ERA down to 3.18, with an ERA+ of 132. Some of his best performances include:

August 5: 4.2 IP, 10 K, 1 BB, 4 H, and 0 ER

August 10: 6.0 IP, 9 K, 0 BB, 8 H, and 2 ER

August 21: 6.0 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 2 H, and 0 ER

He has been very good at limiting hard contact this year, as he is 79th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 83rd percentile in HardHit%, 78th in xSLG, and 92nd in Barrel%. His xERA of 3.58 projects that Steele is slightly over-performing his peripherals this year, but not wildly to the point that he will regress harshly. Although he is primarily a ground ball pitcher, he is still able to strikeout batters at a decent rate, reaching 11.5 K/9 in the second half, and 9.5 K/9 for the season.

What can he improve on?

Despite his recent success, there are a few gaps in Steele’s performance that should be addressed. One of Steele’s biggest problems is his lack of volume. At the time of writing, he only has 119 innings pitched, which is only a few innings shy of Max Scherzer’s 115.2 innings pitched, despite Steele having started 6 more games. Although the workhorse that is Scherzer may not be a fair comparison, Steele has only pitched an average of 5 innings per start for the year. Not only will pitching for 30 started games at that rate not allow him to qualify for any pitching statistics, but it is also simply a low volume for someone who is projected to be the staff's ace for the foreseeable future.

That being said, he is only 27 years old and he is experiencing his first full season in the Majors. The likelihood that he is able to pitch more innings in the future is there. This is especially helped by the fact that he’s primarily a ground ball pitcher who doesn’t throw too hard, so he’s less susceptible to injury the way velocity/strikeout pitchers are.

Inconsistent control

Steele’s other issue he has yet to iron out is his control. Although he has improved at limiting walks which has coincided with the more Major League experience he gets, it is still far from elite. He comes in at the 24th percentile in BB%, and his 3.8 BB/9 doesn’t complement that percentile well.

What is interesting though is that he isn’t consistently wild, but rather he is very on and off with his walk rate:

On July 4, he allowed 4 BB in 6.2 IP but then allowed only 1 BB in 6 IP his next start on July 13

He then proceeded to give up 4 BB yet again in his next start on July 22, and went back to only allowing 1 BB on July 28, his very next start

Before the second half, in his games started on June 5, June 18, and June 29, he allowed 3 BB’s in each but allowed none in his starts on June 13 and June 23

His control itself is not necessarily a huge and unfixable flaw, rather his consistency lacks from time to time. Steele has shown flashes of brilliance when he is able to limit his walks. Besides, his 2021 BB/9 of 4.3 is comfortably higher than his current 3.8 BB/9, which shows he has been making steps in the right direction. Maybe we can see more innings per start out of him too if he isn’t wasting so many pitches on walks.

What can we expect out of him in the future, and what does it mean for the Cubs?

Justin Steele is in a very interesting place out of anyone in the Cubs’ pitching staff. He isn’t too young to be considered untradable, as he just turned 27 a little over a month ago at the time of writing, but he doesn’t exactly hold veteran status to warrant being traded either. That being said, the Cubs are not expected to compete for at least another couple years, most likely in 2024/2025 if there are no hitches in their rebuild. By then, Steele will be approaching 30 years old, which is not as important for him as it would be for other pitchers, but it is something to ponder when considering his value.

A lot of his value also comes from being under team control until 2028. The hope for the Cubs and their fans is to be a playoff competitive team by then. Could trading Steele soon help buff the prospect depth for that time? Or is it better to hold onto him as a piece of a strong rotation come that potential playoff window down the road?

Final thoughts

Over the past offseason, the Cubs have started to overhaul the developmental side of the club. Obviously we saw this with the trades of “The Core” during the 2021 trade deadline, but one of the brightest editions that went largely under the radar was hiring Carter Hawkins from the Cleveland Guardians to be the new general manager of the Cubs. Cleveland has been known to develop fantastic arms, which is something the Cubs have struggled mightily to do, even when they were competitive. Even if it's not a direct correlation, Steele could be a sliver of the hope on the horizon for the Cubs’ future in pitching.

With all said and done, do I consider Justin Steele to be an ace? Not yet. He still needs to refine his ability to limit walks and make sure batters aren’t adapting to him too easily. One could easily project him though as being a solid 2-3 starter in a competitive Cubs rotation given a few years. As mentioned previously, his regression isn’t projected to be particularly extreme. Will he retain an ERA under 1.00 for the rest of the season? Probably not, but he is certainly a bright spot of a 2022 Cubs team that admittedly has little to be excited about in the immediate future. Steele is one of the few pieces that fans can look forward to, and I certainly look forward to seeing him on the bump for the rest of the season, and hopefully for years to come.