Bust to Breakout: Dansby Swanson is All Star Bound

Tony Gleason

After a successful tenure at Vanderbilt University that included a national championship in 2014, while being named a finalist for the 2015 Golden Spikes Award, shortstop Dansby Swanson was selected number one overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks. That offseason he was dealt to the Braves, where he has been the everyday shortstop since the end of 2016, while recording the final putout of the 2021 World Series. Swanson has been a fan favorite in Atlanta, but that may have more to do with his appearance as opposed to his performance. From 2016-2021, Swanson had an 88 wRC+, .309 wOBA and 9.9 fWar in 665 games. He was a positive defender during this time, holding a 7 DRS and 15 OAA, but outside of the shortened 2020 season where he had a 115 wRC+, the bat never seemed to come around.

Comparisons

In his final year before free agency however, the 28 year old Swanson has been arguably the best shortstop in the 2022 season as he has put up career numbers all across the board. So far, Swanson has slashed .302/.357/.491 with a .848 OPS, 135 wRC+, .368 wOBA, 16.7 wRAA, .189 ISO, 7 OAA, and a career high 4.2 fWAR in just 87 games. It’s this type of performance that earned Swanson his first ever all star selection as he will be a reserve for the national league in Los Angeles. Speaking of Swanson of being an All Star, this is how Swanson compares to some of the games perennial best shortstops in 2022.

When a player has a breakout year like this after being in the league for six years, the question of is this player getting lucky gets raised. However, a look at Swanson’s underlying numbers show that a breakout for him was due to happen. Since 2020, Swanson has had an 11.5 Barrel% and 0.95 GB/FB ratio. These underlying numbers only got better as he currently has a career best 11.8 Barrel%, 90.1 Average Exit Velo, 40.8 FB%, and 34.9 GB%. These numbers are a major improvement from 2016-2019 where he had a much lower Barrel% of 4.9% and much higher GB/FB ratio of 1.24.

Approach

What has likely led to Swanson’s success at the plate this year is a much more aggressive approach at the plate. Swanson has a 49.1 Swing% which is his highest since 2018 and a career high 37.1 First Pitch Swing% and 72.6 Zone Swing%. The difference between his approach in 2018 and 2022 is he had a 31.1 Chase% (30th percentile) in 2018 while this year, his Chase% is only 26.6% (63rd percentile). This all means that Swanson is swinging at an all time high while maintaining his low Chase% that he has had throughout the majority of his career which has yielded him career numbers. Another explanation for Swanson’s career year is his improvement on fastballs. Throughout Swanson’s career, over 50% of the pitches seen by Swanson were fastballs and while he’s always put up good numbers against, in 2022 he has a career .427 wOBA and 93 Average Exit Velo on fastballs. It’s these improvements that has helped Swanson change from a very average player, to one of the best shortstops in 2022.

Conclusion

Heading into 2022, shortstop was seen as a place where the Braves should upgrade. However, now that Dansby Swanson is playing up to his potential, the Atlanta Braves may look into resigning him. It’s not a matter of batted ball luck that he yielded Swanson these career high numbers as he is barrelling the ball up and hitting it in the air at career high rates. Rather it’s an aggressive plate approach while maintaining his low Chase% and much better numbers on fastballs that has turned Swanson into an all-star in 2022. Whether it be resigning with the Braves or testing the free agent market, Swanson is likely to get a payday much higher than most would have expected heading into 2022.