Before the 2020 season, the Yankees gave Gerrit Cole a mammoth nine-year 324 million dollar contract. Cole has been met with constant criticism since signing the deal, some of it deserved, but his 2020 and 2021 seasons were good, finishing 4th and 2nd respectively. This year Cole has pitched well, but not lived up to his contract or his true talent level. This has been Cole’s main reason for being criticized, as he has been a very good pitcher, but not as dominant as he was in 2019 or as his contract would suggest. There are a variety of reasons for this situation, including poor execution, tunneling/pitch arsenal issues, game calling/framing and mismanaged expectations. This article is not an anti-Gerrit Cole article, I am a big believer in Cole’s abilities as a pitcher, it is an investigation into why he is not pitching as well as one may expect.

Execution

This section may seem obvious but it is true. Some of Cole’s issues are simply not executing the pitches he needs to execute. This is an issue that almost all pitchers face, as it is incredibly hard to hit the exact location the catcher is set up at. Failures in execution are one of the main causes of the untimely walks and home runs that Cole experiences. A prime example of this is the home run given up by Cole on August 31, a 3-run shot vs Shohei Ohtani. In this pitch during a key situation, the catcher sets up on the outside corner and Cole misses over the plate to the reigning MVP, resulting in a game-changing homer. Another example of Cole missing over the middle comes vs Jonah Bride when he hangs his Knuckle Curve for a Bride home run. A tertiary example is Cole leaving a 3-1 fastball over the plate vs Carlos Santan that is sent 423 feet into right field. This trend of leaving pitches down the middle is an example of poor execution by Cole and something he can fix with better control and accuracy. These missed pitches add up and have contributed to the rise of Cole’s ERA.

Tunneling and Pitch Arsenal

Tunneling is the incredibly important art of having a pitch arsenal that is difficult for the batter to tell apart. Gerrit Cole has elite stuff (rated a 65 by PitchingBot), but he has some issues with his tunnel. In research done by Prospects Live they found that 6-14” Horizontal Separation, 8-16” IVB (Induced Vertical Break) Separation and 6-11 MPH Separation between a slider and a fastball are ideal for generating chases on sliders outside of the zone. Cole’s slider has a respectable 27.8% Chase rate but a rate closer to or above 30% is more ideal. Cole’s slider has 15.6” of Horizontal Separation, 18.2” of IVB, and a 9.2 mph difference. The mph difference falls in the optimal range, but both his horizontal and vertical movements are greater than the optimal range. While it may seem like the more different the better, the previously cited research done by Prospects Live shows how when the separation between pitches is too much, MLB hitters will be able to lay off what are otherwise excellent pitches.

stuff

Gerrit Cole has a 60-grade Stuff slider according to Pitching-Bot, but it is not as effective as it could be because it does not generate quite enough chases. The reason chases are so important for Cole is that he throws the majority of his sliders outside of the zone, so if the batter is not swinging it will normally result in a ball. The Yankees noticed this and attempted to make changes to Cole’s arsenal. Going into this season he scrapped his sinker in exchange for a cutter. Cutter’s have been somewhat of a revolution recently, as they bridge the gap between sliders and fastballs that have too much separation. The addition of Cole’s cutter most likely came in an attempt to blur the lines more for hitters between his fastball and slider. The cutter falls right between the slider and fastball in horizontal and vertical movement, serving its purpose of splitting the difference between the two pitches, but it has not been a completely effective pitch due to the amount of hard contact it has allowed. Cole’s cutter has a .361 xwOBA, far higher than any of his other pitches, which has caused him to reduce its usage as the season goes on. The reason for these negative results appears to be from a lack of horizontal movement/deception, supported by the fact that Cole averages 0.4” of movement horizontally and by the video evidence of his cutter allowing XBHs. A Whit Merrifield double shows how a lack of side-to-side movement can harm Cole. The best example of this issue comes on June 9th when Cole allowed home runs on middle-middle cutters to both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton.

The lack of horizontal movement/deception is incredibly apparent in these pitches and in how they are hit over the outfield wall. Cole’s cutter is remarkably similar to the only pitcher with a higher AAV salary, Max Scherzer. The active spin, induced vertical break and measured horizontal movement are all nearly identical. However, there is a big difference in the results for these two pitches, as Scherzer’s has a .262 xwOBA, a full .100 less than Coles. This difference stems from the horizontal approach angle; Cole has an HAA of -2.8 degrees, while Scherzer’s HAA is -4.4 degrees, the lowest of all pitchers who have thrown over 50 cutters. This difference in horizontal approach angle is the defining factor that separates an elite cutter from an average one. A change in HAA or general horizontal movement could allow Cole to improve his cutter’s deception as well as his overall tunnel/ pitch arsenal.

Game calling/ Framing

Gerrit Cole has been caught by two different catchers this season, Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka. In the past Higashioka was Cole’s “personal catcher” but this year Trevino has caught the bulk of the innings for Cole. This has come with a great deal of success as Cole holds a 2.52 ERA in 128.2 innings with Trevino behind the plate, compared to his incredibly poor 5.27 ERA in 42.2 IP with Higashioka catching. These below-average outings with Higashioka come in part as a result of bad game calling. Game calling is the catcher’s responsibility to call for a specific pitch and location, a vital element of pitching. When the catcher calls the incorrect pitch it can lead to runs for the opposing team, harming the pitcher's statistics. An example of this poor game calling is from August 3rd vs the Mariners when Cole allowed 3 home runs in the first innings. This specific pitch to Eugenio Suarez is an example of bad game calling, as Higashioka calls a 0-0 slider over the plate and it results in a 3-run homer. Another important component of Catcher defense is Framing, Cole benefits from both of his catchers’ framing skills, but while Higashioka is good (1 catcher framing run) Trevino is otherworldly elite, leading the league with 14 catcher framing runs. This difference seriously benefits anyone that throws to Trevino, as he steals strikes and widens the zone for his pitchers. By throwing more to Jose Trevino and less to Kyle Higashioka, Gerrit Cole can continue to improve his pitching numbers.

Mismanaged Expectations

While it is true that Gerrit Cole has underperformed his overall talent level this season and he is yet to have a season as good as his remarkable 2019 one, he has still been an elite pitcher since signing in New York. Unfortunately for him, some will feel that he can’t live up to his contract if he is not winning the Cy Young and is spotless in all the big games. However, he is pitching very well and if he continues to make positive strides he will only get better. These positive strides can come in the form of better execution, an improved tunnel that maximizes his elite pitches, and continuing to use Jose Trevino as his catcher. By doing these things and other small changes Cole can fulfill his potential as the best pitcher in the game of baseball.