As a Yankees fan, I’d be remiss if my intro article at MLBNerds was not a Yankees related article. How about we start with the Yankees #2 and MLB’s #33 (per FanGraphs) ranked prospect: Oswald Peraza. For starters, the Yankees managed to get a starting LF, two relief pitchers, including one with 5+ years of team control, and a top-30 MLB starter, all without giving up Peraza. Respect the CashGod. Needless to say, I am going to dig into why Peraza should thrill Yankees fans, as well as why he should be the starting SS ASAP.

The Minor League Numbers

Let’s start with the basic numbers for Peraza. He had a major offensive breakout in 2021 starting in High-A, which led to a meteoric rise through the Yankees’ farm. It was there in Hudson Valley where Peraza posted a slash line of .306/.386/.532, good for a stout .918 OPS and a 144 wRC+. This led to a quick promotion to Somerset, where his offense fell to a small degree but nothing significant. In AA, he still posted a .295/.348/.466 slash line, equating to an .814 OPS with a 122 wRC+. Once again, this led to a quick promotion to Scranton Wilkes-Barre, where he finished his 2021. The numbers weren’t eye popping in AAA, but it was an 8 game sample size, so we won’t focus too much on that.

Needless to say, he started 2022 where he left off in 2021: Scranton. For the first time ever, now the hype was truly on. #2 ranked prospect in the Yankees system by every major publication, as well as a top 50 prospect in baseball by many more. It didn’t help that the Yankees passed on a generational free agent crop of shortstops. It didn’t start out pretty either, in April and May combined, he posted a very paltry .619 OPS, with 5 home runs in 38 games. However, he quickly adjusted; since June 1st, Peraza has a 140 wRC+ with 10 home runs in 41 games. Start the sample on June 11th, and he’s at an incredible 166 wRC+ in 35 G. On the surface, his 105 wRC+ in 2022 seems like nothing to gawk at, a quick glance at his splits show a true breakout for the 22 year old shortstop.

MLB Projections

I want to start with a very simple number that Fangraphs uses to determine the estimated value of young prospects: FV (Future Value). FV is the idea that we can project the upside of a prospect with one number. I cannot explain it as well as the folks over at FanGraphs can, so I’ll refer you to them here.

The simplest way to explain it is that it uses the 20-80 scale to estimate the expected value of a prospect for their first 6 years of MLB Service. You will mostly see prospects cap out at 60. You’ll find Oswald Peraza at a 50, which estimates league average production (1.6-2.4 fWAR yearly) as his floor. At the absolute worst, you’re getting a league average shortstop who plays good defense and runs the bases well. So at the absolute worst, you’re getting someone better than Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Another fun thing to look at in support of the #PerazaToNYY agenda is a peak at projections. Projections are computer models that use all of the intelligence available to create a 50th percentile, median outcome for a player. Let’s start with my personal favorite: Steamer. If Peraza were called up tomorrow, they’d project him to have the following numbers: .243/.298/.388 (.685 OPS), .300 wOBA, 95 wRC+. Steamer projects that his median outcome would be an upgrade at the plate compared to IKF. The Yankees themselves believe that the glove is already ready for the show, so as a baseline, Peraza represents an upgrade on both sides of the field. Steamer isn’t the only projection that feels this way either, Fangraphs’ own FGDC projects the exact same numbers from the Yankees’ prospect. Overall, the basic numbers and the advanced numbers project that even as a rookie, Peraza projects as someone who’s baseline is an average big-leaguer, with the tools to be a special talent.

More numbers

I want to dig into these numbers a bit, and why his offensive projections are so friendly for a rookie. 95 wRC+ for a 22 year old SS would be a strong start. Offensively speaking, I see a good power hitting SS with an average OBP. I think Bo Bichette is a solid comparison for him offensively speaking. Slugging middle infielder with low BB rates. There are three main statistics I want to explain that led to this comparison. His Z-Swing is 77.5% (73rd percentile for MiLB) and his Z-Contact is 81.7% (73rd percentile for MiLB). He is hitting pitches in the zone, and he is hitting them well. Strangely enough, Bo Bichette’s career Z-Swing is 77.2% and his Z-con is 84.5%, making the correlation to Peraza easy enough for me. The only below average part of his offensive profile is the plate discipline. His BB% is in the 27th percentile for MiLB players. For reference, Bo Bichette is in the 20th percentile in MLB. Ideally, Peraza’s offensive upside for the Yankees would be Bichette. Peraza would be in the upper tier of shortstops in baseball with Bichette’s offensive output over the last 3 seasons added onto Peraza’s defensive and base running abilities.

Wrap-Up

As previously stated, at the very worst, you’re getting a minor upgrade to IKF. At the best, you’re getting a SS with ++ defense, 20-20 upside, and good old fashioned homegrown team control. With the lack of viable starting SS on the trade market, the Yankees should look within for a solution to their SS conundrum. After all, the whole reason they got IKF was to hold down the fort until Peraza was ready, and based on his summer showing at Scranton, it looks like that time is here. They’re not trading him, so give him the chance he’s very much earned.