It’s safe to say the 2022 Boston Red Sox season has been filled with many ups and downs. They had an abysmal start to the season where they went 10-19 with an ice cold hitting core and nobody able to shut the door in the ninth inning. However, things started to turn around as starting on May 13th, they went on an absolute tear where they went 31-11 over their next 42 games with a team 130 wRC+ over that span, the best in majors. They even held the #1 Wild Card Spot and the third best record in the AL for a short span. However, they went 6-14 in their last 20 games leading up to the All Star break and have fallen to 2 games out of a Wild Card spot due to losing crucial games against division rivals, a mountain of injuries, and the Mariners getting red hot.

Despite all that has happened this year so far for the Red Sox, none of it matters. The 10-19 start, the red hot June, the mountain of injuries, Rafael Devers MVP caliber year…none of that matters for the Red Sox anymore. The only thing that matters now is the next 11 games leading up to the trade deadline. How the Red Sox perform over the course of the next eleven games will determine the fate of this season, but following seasons and whether or not some of Boston's most beloved players will continue to be on the Red Sox.

Buyers or Sellers

These players will be free agents at the end of the 2022 season:

Xander Bogaerts (Will likely opt out)

J.D. Martinez

Christian Vazquez

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Kevin Plawecki

Kiké Hernandez(Very unlikely to be traded due to injury)

Nathan Eovaldi

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

Matt Strahm

Asset Management

How the Red perform over these next 11 games will decide whether these players spend the rest of the season on the Red Sox, or a group of them get shipped off at the deadline. They start off with a three game series against the Blue Jays, then four games against the Guardians, and then three against the Brewers, all at Fenway. They then go to Houston for a three game series, but the deadline will have passed by the time game two starts. If they play like they did during that 31-11 stretch, they will likely try to fix their holes to go for another deep postseason run. If the Red Sox play like they have been playing however, then there’s a very good chance that they sell at the deadline. Chaim Bloom’s big thing is “sustainability” so it’s unlikely he’ll go all in on a team where there are big question marks on whether or not they can even make it in as the 5 or 6 seed.

Critical Games

The most important series of the next 11 games is the first one against the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have played terribly against the AL East this year as they have gone 12-26 without winning a single series against division rivals. Not to mention, Toronto currently holds the final Wild Card spot. A series win puts the Red Sox just a game back and a sweep would put them a game up. Whether it be a series win or sweep, both put the Red Sox in a good position to make a good run leading up to the trade deadline, while also getting the monkey off their back about never winning a series against the AL east. However, if the Red Sox lose the series or get swept, things will look very grim. A series loss will put them a .500 and three games out of a playoff spot while a sweep puts them five games out. If they lose the series, there is still time for them to bounce back over the next 8 games, but they will have to play perfectly during that span.

What does Selling Look Like

Butterfly Effect

If the Red Sox were to sell at the deadline this year, it will likely affect them for many years after 2022. This wouldn’t be like the 2020 deadline where the biggest name they traded away was Mitch Moreland. Rather there is the potential for some of the most iconic players in Boston to be traded away after this year. These players include:

Xander Bogaerts: Set the record for most games started at shortstop by the Red Sox. Has been with the club since 2013 and has helped them win two world series titles. Has a 135 wRC+ since 2018 and is a leader in the clubhouse. Not to mention he’s only 29.

J.D. Martinez: Signed a 5 year 110 million dollar contract before the 2018 season and has been worth every penny. Martinez has been arguably the most important piece of the Red Sox offense with a 138 wRC+ and .378 wOBA. Was instrumental in the Red Sox’ 2018 World Series title. Also a clubhouse leader.

Nathan Eovaldi

When Chris Sale went down with injuries, this guy stepped up. Since 2020, Eovaldi has a 3.40 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, and a 3.48 SIERA. Not to mention his performance in the postseason has been key to the Red Sox. He started the Wild Card game in 2021 and held the Yankees to one run over 5.1 innings. He also pitched six innings of relief in game 3 of the 2018 World Series. He steps up and is the ace of staff.

Christian Vazquez: While he may be nearly as good as the other players mentioned, he has still been with the Red Sox since 2014. He’s had many ups and downs throughout that time, but this year he’s come through big for the Red Sox with a 147 wRC+ in high leverage situations.

This isn’t like 2020, where the Red Sox didn’t have any big name players about to enter free agency so they could just trade away smaller name guys like Mitch Moreland or Brandon Workman. The Red Sox can’t get away with just selling off smaller pieces year after year with the amount of players that are free agents after the season. If the Red Sox decide to sell, it will change the fate of the Red Sox for years to come.

Imagine a Red Sox team without their everyday shortstop of the past decade, best hitter, ace of the staff, and a guy who has caught at least half the season for them since 2017.

It’s extremely unlikely they’ll trade away every single one of these guys, but at least some combination may be moved with some smaller names like Michael Wacha. These next 11 games will decide if these big name players' time in Boston will come to an end. Everything that has happened since they got eliminated from the ALCS last year has come down to these 11 games. 11 games to decide whether or not the Red Sox trade away some of their best and iconic players that have played a huge role in the Red Sox success. This will affect them for years to come since they will be without their best players so they will have to work towards developing their prospects and bringing in new guys to fill the holes that come from trading Bogaerts, J.D. and Eovaldi.

Xander Bogaerts

If Bogaerts is traded, you’ll likely have Story move over to shortstop as that’s where he played during his time in Colorado. Chrisitan Arroyo will likely take over the second base role with Jeter Downs, headline prospect from the Mookie Betts trade, getting some playing time.

J.D. Martinez

If J.D. is gone, Bobby Dalbec and Francy Cordero could spend time platooning at DH. They’ve been doing this at first base for just about the entire season, but it would be better if they did it at DH because they are both abysmal on the field. This would leave them without a first basemen so they may look into acquiring one or calling up their top prospect, Triston Casas, to be their first basemen.

Christian Vazquez

Kevin Plawecki doesn’t hold too much value so if they were to sell they may keep him so they have someone to play catcher. Connor Wong, also from the Mookie Betts trade, will also likely stay on the team for the remainder of the season.

Nathan Eovaldi

The 2022 Red Sox have already had to dip down into the minor leagues for starters due to how many injuries their rotation has seen. If Eovaldi is traded it will likely be more of that. Winckowski, Crawford, and maybe Bello and Seabold will get starts until Wacha, Hill, Paxton, and Sale are back (if they don’t trade Wacha/Hill).

Concluding thoughts

I’m not saying this is what definitely will happen because there is the possibility the Red Sox get it together over the next 11 games. That being said though, it’s also possible they continue to struggle. If you’re a Red Sox fan, all I have to say is, buckle up.