At the time I’m writing this, the New York Yankees have been terrible for 51 games now. 20-31. They’ve been the worst team in the AL in August. They’re slumping at levels not seen in the last 30 years of franchise history. Despite this, they’re 5 games up in the division and still have a top 5 record in baseball. They’re uniquely positioned to either make a run for the World Series or not make the dance at all if recent trends continue.

Regardless of what happens this season, if the Yankees rally and win their 28th title or completely flame out and miss the playoffs, they need to retool their roster immediately. I’m not talking about a teardown and rebuild as franchises do from time to time, no. Processes like that disgust me, especially if a team has the financial capital the Yankees do. The Yankees “retooled” in 2017, shifting from the aging and depleted “Core Four” Era into the “Baby Bombers” Era, which hasn’t gone very well. For the Yankees to continue their near-impossible streak of winning seasons and contend for years to come, they need to make big changes this offseason. Let’s start with the starting rotation.

Rotation

Of the Yankees’ fully healthy five-man rotation, three of them are under contract next season. Gerrit Cole, Frankie Montas, and Nestor Cortes. Beyond that, Jameson Taillon is a free agent and Luis Severino has a $15 million club option. Picking up Sevy’s option is a must.

After three straight lost seasons due to a variety of injuries, Luis Severino has a 3.45 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA, and 9.94 K/9 to 2.64 BB/9 in 86 innings. Sevy has had very good command when healthy and has shown big flashes of his 2017-18 self that got him the 4 years, $40 million extension that ends this season. The issue is, of course, injury history, but if the Yankees weren’t controlling his innings and coasting (which I disagree with), he wouldn’t have been placed on the 60-Day IL. Severino needs to be penciled in as a key member of next year’s rotation.

Beyond that, the Yankees shouldn’t make an effort to re-sign Jameson Taillon. Maybe give him a qualifying offer to get draft compensation, since some team will give him a multi-year deal worth $15 million or so AAV. Clarke Schmidt and Domingo German are the two leading contenders for the fifth spot in next year’s rotation as a result.

Schmidt has flashed his potential with sharp relief outings and a good spot start earlier in the year (3 IP, 0 R, 5 K in emergency outing on 6/16), but stumbled against Oakland after replacing an “injured” Nestor Cortes. He was okay(?) against the Rays on Saturday, but the offense let him down.

German, on the other hand, has pitched well results-wise since his terrible season debut in Houston, posting a 2.35 ERA, 3.8 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, and 4.50 SIERA, along with good command (1.96 BB/9) in his last eight starts. The long-term issues are his lack of strikeout stuff, hard contact given up (90.4 average EV in that span), and ultimately the fact that he’s a scumbag domestic abuser.

Other options internally for the five spot are slim. Michael King is not going back to the rotation, Deivi Garcia looks completely lost in the minor leagues, and Luis Gil won’t be back from Tommy John Surgery until late 2023. Maybe Jhony Brito, assuming he’s protected from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason, could try and impress next Spring?

Of course, there are also free agent and trade options. The team could go after Pablo Lopez, who they almost acquired at the Trade Deadline, or they could pursue an arm like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, or Tyler Anderson (among others) in free agency. Either way, there could be some changes there.

Bullpen

The Yankees bullpen is due for a massive shakeup. They have four arms hitting free agency this offseason and coincidentally, all four are injured.

Aroldis Chapman (leg infection)

Zack Britton (recovery from Sept 2021 TJS)

Chad Green (Tommy John Surgery)

Miguel Castro (shoulder)

Chapman should NOT be re-signed. He arguably shouldn’t even be on a major league roster right now. Since June 10, 2021, in 56 innings, Aroldis Chapman has a 5.06 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 1.7 HR/9, and most disgustingly, 6.9 BB/9. Chapman cannot command any of his pitches anymore and goes multiple weeks without being able to throw a strike consistently. His velocity is consistently down and he isn’t a viable major league pitcher anymore.

Britton hasn’t pitched since August 19, 2021, and is currently rehabbing with the Yankees’ Low-A affiliate. Who knows if he is going to play this season at this point? Britton was awful in 2021, his velocity was down several ticks (94-95 MPH to 92-93) and his spin rate continued to drop. If Britton is going to be like this for the rest of his career, he may not pitch again in the majors. However, he spent all of 2021 battling some type of injury, and there’s optimism that he can be sharp as a big league contributor if he can get healthy. Britton had a 1.9 ERA and 3.47 FIP in 86 innings from 2019-20 as an elite set-up man. The only issue is command, but I wouldn’t totally be against a prove-it deal for 2023 only.

Green will likely miss most of 2023 after blowing out his elbow in May of this season. Green has gotten way too much flack from Yankees fans for allowing backbreaking home runs, which tends to happen when you throw high-leverage innings. Green has thrown 383.2 innings as a Yankee since emerging in 2016 as a starter. Since then, he’s morphed from innings eater to opener to middle-reliever to set-up man to backup closer and despite some bumps (29 HR allowed in 178.1 IP from 2019-21) has been a steady force in the bullpen with a 3.14 ERA and 3.29 FIP in his career. Green could get a Dodgers Tommy Kahnle-like contract, where it’s heavily backloaded to account for the player’s likely season-long Tommy John Surgery recovery.

Castro probably will not come back. No slight to him, but the Yankees bullpen is crowded and he might not even be on the roster when he’s recovered from his injury.

Beyond this, the Yankees get Michael King back to add to a stable of arms centered around Clay Holmes, Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, Wandy Peralta, and Ron Marinaccio. The Yankees could use Schmidt/German as a long reliever, keep Albert Abreu on as a depth piece (high potential arm I still believe in him), bring back veterans or add new ones, or go young and give spots to Greg Weissert and Stephen Ridings. Any way they do it should be interesting, as there’s going to be a lot of turnover this offseason.

Catcher

Jose Trevino is one of the few players who’s not heavily underperforming recently. The All-Star backstop is slashing .286/.313/.442 with a 116 wRC+ in August and on the season, is slashing .261/.297/.411 with a 102 wRC+, .309 wOBA, and career highs in HR and RBI in an offensive renaissance. Considering leaguewide catcher offense has just an 89 wRC+ and Trevino laps the field with 16 DRS and 16.3 FRM, with Adley Rutschman being the only one somewhat close in either category. His 3.8 fWAR is third in baseball to J.T. Realmuto and Sean Murphy. He is very easily the starting catcher for years to come (he is under contract through the end of 2025).

The backup is a two-man battle, for now. The incumbent is Kyle Higashioka, who impresses defensively (84th Percentile in framing and 77th in pop time in 2021) and was lauded as a potential breakout candidate as the new starter after underperforming his xwOBA by 71 points (.272 wOBA vs .343 wOBA) in 2021. It suffices to say that Higgy was not due for an offensive breakout. He is slashing .191/.235/.341 with a 62 wRC+ this season over 189 PA, his xwOBA dropped over 40 points, and his defense regressed. He went from the preferred option of most pitchers to having terrible numbers with guys like Gerrit Cole.

The other option is Ben Rortvedt. Rortvedt was acquired in the infamous IKF/Donaldson trade with limited major league experience. His major league defensive numbers (5 DRS, 2.3 FRM in 256 innings) offset his miserable offensive numbers (.169/.229/.281, 41 wRC+ in 39 games). Like Higashioka, his major league xwOBA was sizably larger than his wOBA (.227 wOBA vs .270 xwOBA). Rortvedt being injured in Spring Training, along with a setback in May, heavily hurt his prospects of fulfilling the role he was supposed to fill. He started extremely slow upon returning to Triple-A after rehab (.167/.256/.264 in first 20 games) but has 3 HR in his last five starts and got the slashline to .204/.279/.378.

The team also has a dark horse option. One of the bigger “musts” when it comes to protecting prospects from the Rule 5 Draft is Triple-A catcher Josh Breaux. Breaux has a clear strength, he’s a slugger. He slugged .503 & 42.3 hard hit% in 90 games across High-A and Double-A last season with a .254 ISO. This year, he’s struggled as, aside from a 15-game scorching hot streak after a promotion to Triple-A, he’s not faring so hot. He’s slugging .439 with a .216 ISO in 81 games. Breaux has never played a separate position, and he’s not considered a strong defender. He’s been compared to Gary Sanchez in MLB Pipeline’s evaluation, as he has a 45-field grade. His arm is given a 60, however.

Ultimately, the Yankees shouldn’t waste a 40-man spot on Kyle Higashioka, who will be 33 in April 2023. Rortvedt’s defense makes him hopefully productive enough to be in Higgy’s role behind Trevino. Breaux should be given a 40-man roster spot but could be like Donny Sands and get traded as soon as he was protected. Either way, no reason to maybe lose him for nothing.

Infield

The Yankees infield from 2019-20 was one of the best in baseball. There were no holes anywhere, everyone was productive offensively. It was rivaling the Dodgers and Padres for the best in the sport. Since then, Luke Voit and Gio Urshela are gone, DJ LeMahieu has gotten two years older, and Gleyber Torres has fallen off offensively. Their current infield right now is incredibly volatile and probably needs to be changed again.

Starting with Anthony Rizzo, the team’s obligatory Italian, who’s having a great season. Slashing .225/.339/.493 with 30 HR (2nd in the AL), posting a .357 wOBA, and a 136 wRC+. His offensive swoons in 2019 and 2020 were greatly exaggerated, as he’s bounced back to his prime Cubs level. The issue is, that the average is down (he perennially hit .280 while maintaining a high SLG in Chicago), the strikeouts are up (19.0 K% would be a career-high), and his back continues to flare up. He’s missed at least four games three separate times due to back issues but hasn’t been ILed. Rizzo’s performance has suffered lately, posting an 85 wRC+ since August 3, the last day before he missed a week due to back problems.

Rizzo’s contract situation means he’ll likely opt out after this season looking to get a raise on his $16 million salary and get a multi-year deal. The Yankees probably won’t give him anything more than two years, and with Judge needing to be extended, he might just be given the qualifying offer and handed his flowers.

DJ LeMahieu is one of three players whose roster spot is safe. This is despite the fact he’s been HORRENDOUS since the beginning of August (.169/.242/.225, 37 wRC+). Despite that, he has a 123 wRC+, has been a calming presence at the top of the lineup, and has been a wizard, being great defensively at multiple positions (4 OAA at 3B, 3 at 1B, 2 at 2B). LeMahieu has 4/60 left on his deal and he just turned 34. The only issue is that he’s had multiple injuries that drastically hurt his performance the last two seasons (sports hernia in late 2021, toe in August 2022).

Gleyber Torres has had one of the weirdest seasons I’ve ever seen. After a slow start, Torres winded up waking up on July 30 with a .266/.323/.481 slashline, a 129 wRC+, a 90.6 MPH average exit velocity, and a manageable BABIP of .288. Torres was arguably deserving of being an all-star, as his stats were superior to Santiago Espinal. With 2+ years on his contract, he played himself back into the future of the team.

However, Torres then proceeded to begin the most miserable five-week stretch in his entire life, slashing .174/.196/.248 with a 23 wRC+. He went from 18.8 K% to 33% K%. He went from walking 8% of the time to 2.7%. He got less patient, his stance changed, his approach changed, and he started flailing at everything. All of the early season progress was washed away. His wRC+ has plummeted from 129 to 101 in that time. His good four months are completely erased. When they look at this season in 10 years, they’ll see mediocre, not all-star caliber. Torres’ trade value has collapsed during this time, but he’s shown that the old him is still in there. A team will take a gamble on the 25-year-old who will hit the market after 2024. With him due for a raise to between $8.5 and $10 million, the Yankees are probably better off trading him, and this hurts to say as a guy who believed he was back.

The left side of the infield has been terrible. They were acquired in the same trade, sending out Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez to get them. Isiah Kiner-Falefa deserves no introduction. Out of 24 qualified shortstops, he is 22nd in fWAR, 18th in BsR, 21st in wRC+, 22nd in SLG, and 23rd in ISO. The only things he ranks well in are BA (11th) and DRS (13th). Other than that, he’s been painfully mediocre. If he is the starting shortstop next season, the Yankees are openly continuing to punt seasons and are disgraces to baseball.

The man to his left makes $25 million to slash .218/.303/.375. Donaldson’s lowest wRC+ since establishing himself in 2013 was 117 in 2018. It went from 126 last year to 96 this year. His 1.3 fWAR would be his second lowest ever in a full season. He would be even lower if not for his elite, where he will win a Gold Glove with a 7 DRS and 7 OAA at 3B. A guy like Donaldson has value in baseball, he’s an incredible defender with occasional pop in his bat. The problem is, he will make almost $50 million over the next two years. He’s paid to hit, and he can’t hit anymore. His 91 MPH average EV is the lowest since 2018. His Barrel% and HardHit% have plummeted. His .305 wOBA is pathetically low compared to his previous career low in the Statcast Era (.345). Donaldson needs to be gone.

Behind these five scuffling players, there are a bunch of highly-touted prospects. Oswaldo Cabrera got a call-up in mid-August after tearing up Triple-A for several weeks. His defense has been nothing short of elite, but he’s been thrown everywhere, from 3B, to SS, to 2B, to mainly RF with Stanton’s lack of availability and Hicks’ struggles. His bat? Struggling. The team’s #14 prospect is slashing .211/.250/.298 in his first 61 PA. He doesn’t look overmatched, isn’t getting struck out too much, and is working counts, but isn’t getting results.

The other option who was recently recalled is Oswald Peraza. A consensus Top 50 prospect in the sport and top 3 in the organization, Peraza hasn’t played enough to evaluate him in the majors, but he’s graded as a good hitter and great defender. He’s more likely to stick at SS than a certain prospect we will get into. After a slow start in Triple-A, Peraza slashed an incredible .316/.382/.560 with a 148 wRC+ and .408 wOBA from June 11 until he was recalled on September 1. If he isn’t dealt for the pitching help, he’ll open the season fighting for a roster spot.

A dark horse in the Yankees 2023 plans is Anthony Volpe. The Consensus Top 10 Prospect in all of baseball has been absolutely electric, slashing .282/.373/.523 with 30 SB and a 142 wRC+ in his last 80 Double-A games before getting called up to SWB on 9/1. He’s stolen 44 bases in 50 tries this season, he’s walking almost as much as he’s striking out (struck out less than 15% of the time in that 80-game stretch). He’s a 60-grade with hitting and power, an above average runner, but his average defense might get him moved to 2B. Slugging .473 this season after slugging .604 last season proves he has great pop in his bat (he has 18 HR and 54 XBH this season). Volpe is 3-for-7 with an RBI double in two short games so far, and best case scenario he lights it up like Oswaldo Cabrera did late last year and puts himself in a spot where he could come up from behind and sack IKF for the starting SS spot.

Ultimately, the Yankees infield is going to have massive turnover soon. Anthony Rizzo might be gone after this season and there’s no way he’s here after 2024. Josh Donaldson will either be traded this offseason in a not-ideal trade or bought out after 2023. Torres could have a future here, but his recent slump since he was mentioned in trade talks complicate it. IKF won’t stay here past 2023 at most. The Yankees infield by 2024 could look like LeMahieu at 1B, Volpe at 2B, Peraza ar SS, and Cabrera at 3B. Will that happen? Nope. But if all three could show by next season they can be solid big leaguers at worst, it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Outfield

The Yankees outfield entering the season was stacked. Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Hicks in reserve and Tim Locastro as a pinch-runner. Things looked fine. Until they quickly weren’t. Hicks and Gallo have been awful (Gallo is now gone), Stanton has missed time with injuries, and Judge has carried the unit on his broad shoulders. The future of this unit is as unstable as any.

Aaron Hicks was coming off missing over 100 games with a bad wrist injury last season and to his credit, he’s played 109 games, third most in his career and most since his 2018 season that earned him a rich 7 year, $70 million contract extension. Hicks still showed signs of being good until his miserable start to 2021, and it carried over.

Hicks’s season has been incredibly confusing. In April, he looked damn good with a .426 OBP, 136 wRC+, and 17.7 BB%. He then completely collapsed in May, slashing .127/.253/.141 with a 25 wRC+. His strikeout rate doubled from 14% to 29% and he had ONE extra-base hit all month. Hicks then resurged in June and July, putting up great numbers (.281/.401/.452, 148 wRC+, .171 ISO, 15.4 BB%, 11 XBH) and appeared to maybe save his job. Until he went 0-for-29 over a nine-game stretch. Midway through that stretch, the Yankees traded for his replacement and slowly stopped playing him. Since the team made the move to instill a youth movement in mid-August, Hicks has just 17 PA since August 18. His .336 OBP on the season is the only good thing about those stats. He’s somehow slugging .300, when he slugged .457 from 2017-20. His power has vanished and he’s about to enter his age-33 season with 3 more seasons of his contract. The Yankees have no choice but to DFA or try to move him in a salary dump. He doesn’t do much right besides being decent defensively when given reps in LF.

Hicks’ replacement is the ultra-athlete Harrison Bader. The New York native has a career 98 wRC+, but had two seasons of over 110 in a row before entering this one. Bader has been one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. Since 2018, he’s fifth among center fielders with 36 DRS and is first with 47 OAA and 38.4 UZR. The Yankees as a whole are much improved defensively, but Bader would be transcendent, as the Yankees are mediocre at best defensively in center this season (-6 DRS, -1.1 UZR, 1 OAA). Bader also has elite speed, being 94th percentile in sprint speed this season. He’s locked up through 2023 with a $5.2 million price tag next year, which is reasonable. The only problem is, he’s coming off a long term injury in plantar fasciitis. Who knows if he’ll be as athletic again, as this injury has derailed many careers. The Yankees need him to bounce back and show his value, so they can make Hicks expendable.

The team acquired Andrew Benintendi at the trade deadline, and he was heating up over a 15-20 game stretch until breaking the hook of his hamate bone. It looks like he might return this season, but the real question is what will his market be. The All-Star probably could command a decent contract of 3 years, $48 million as an extremely rough estimate, but if he plays well in the postseason, he’ll possibly twist Steinbrenner’s hand and get him back on the dotted line.

Giancarlo Stanton is the only guy in the outfield who is a Yankee longterm. This season has been better than his injury-plagued 2019 and 2020, and he was named an all-star starter this year, but he’s on one of his agonizing cold stretches that make you regret the big contract. Stanton can easily just be a DH for the next several seasons and there’s no reason to believe his easy power will disappear anytime soon. Plus, starting in 2026, Miami will pay $30 million of the potential $79 million remaining on his contract (2028 is a club option). Miami already pays $3 million a year, so Stanton isn’t really paid the $30 million he is owed annually by the Yankees as it is.

The biggest wild card is Aaron Judge. What the titanic slugger does this offseason will decide the fate of the franchise. With how he’s carried the team completely in this stretch, it’s clear that the Yankees would be in shambles without him. Without him, the team might retool and “rebuild” quicker than they have to. Judge has 8.7 fWAR on September 4, his wRC+ is 199, he has 53 home runs. He is the face of the franchise. He might be 30 and will never do this again, but the Yankees need his titanic bat to stay a Yankee for life. If he walks, the Yankees won’t have much of a reason to extend this window of opportunity. If he stays, the Yankees will have multiple more cracks at a title, and can ease into the new era of youth. It all depends on him.

If Judge walks, or even if he stays, the Yankees will need to get outfield help in free agency. Luckily for them, there’s some damn good options. Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley, Brandon Nimmo, Kiké Hernandez, and Mitch Haniger headline it. Adding one of those bats and re-signing Judge would be massive.

Summary

The point of this article was that the Yankees NEED to retool sooner rather than later. By the end of 2024, the team won’t have a bulk of their current roster, possibly including:

• Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Zack Britton, Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Harrison Bader, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Kyle Higashioka

The list goes on and on and on. The Yankees are seemingly ready to pivot to youth starting next season. Oswald Peraza is ready to challenge IKF for the starting SS job next year. Anthony Volpe will challenge for an infield spot sometime next season. Austin Wells is fast-rising and could switch to 1B and be the successor to Rizzo at the position. Jasson Dominguez will probably come up in late 2024 or 2025, and him and Everson Pereira could come in and replace some of the current guys out there. Will Warren is a fast-rising prospect and he along with Yoendrys Gomez will be ready by 2024 to replace the guys who could be gone by then.

The Yankees are hoping this window will provide their 28th World Series championship, but after this year they’re going to have to flip things on its head after six seasons of coming up short. There are too many dead spots on the roster and money not being spent correctly. When you can easily spend $200+ million every season, there’s always a way to change things up.