Everybody knows that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was one of the most hyped prospects to break the Major Leagues, and those same people know that he has power that few can match up with. His 99th percentile in Max Exit Velocity, 97th percentile in Avg Exit Velocity, and 96% percentile in HardHit% in 2022 all back that up. His Max Exit Velocity has been in the top 1% of the league since he was a rookie, and his Average Exit Velocity has been within the top 7% or greater since the pandemic shortened 2020 season. So if he is hitting the ball with such elite power, what has been holding back Vladdy’s production that has been hyped for so many years?

Lack of Elevated Contact

Vlad Jr’s biggest battle since the inception of his Major League career has been elevating the ball. In his rookie season, he hit for a GB% of 50.4%, which is very low for a player with such high projected power. His problem got even worse in 2020 when he hit for a 54.6% GB% and a 21.9% FB%. Hitting the ball on the ground over half the time is not a recipe for 30+ home run seasons, so something needed to change. He improved his GB% to 45.6% in 2021, and such a slight improvement in batted ball elevation led to such significantly better results. He slammed 48 home runs, and despite him not taking home the MVP, fans couldn’t wait to see him make another run in 2022.

Now fast forward to September of the 2022 season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has only hit 27 home runs to this point. Now that is still a remarkable amount, make no mistake. That being said, it is a far cry from his previous campaign. This came to be as a result of his ground ball habit returning again, as he hit for a GB% that was even higher than his rookie season at a whopping 51.4%. Let's compare his ground ball, flyball, and line drive rates in 2022 to other power hitters around his caliber:

Guerrero is the huge outlier on this chart, as his ground ball and fly ball rates are way offline from the others. The other hitters combined average for 40.6% GB% and a 32.13% FB%. His GB% shockingly higher from the others, and his FB% is just as concerning at a measly 16.5%, just about half as often as other elite power hitters are.

It's not that Guerrero can’t be productive with how he’s hitting the ball, especially with how hard he is hitting it. His batted ball rates are similar to 2019 seasons of Starling Marte and Trea Turner. But those seasons didn’t–nor will Vlad’s 2022–produce the amount of offensive value other hard hitters of his caliber are this season. As mentioned previously though, we know Vlad has the ability to produce equal or greater value to these hitters because we’ve already seen it before.

Finding Success Despite His Struggles

Despite his batted ball elevation problems he’s experienced yet again this season, there is credit to be given. As of 09/05/22, he has still hit 27 home runs over the course of 132 games. That total is nothing to scoff at, as he leads the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays in HRs, SLG, and OPS+. It's just that compared to 2021, it seems tame.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s 2021 season proved to the world that he wasn’t a bust by hitting 48 home runs, driving in 111 RBI’s, and leading the league in OBP (.401) and SLG (.601). It was also the season that featured his career lows in GB% and career highs in FB% and LD%. Now, let's use the same chart used previously with Vlad’s 2021 batted ball profile instead of 2022’s: