Andrew Painter has gone from being the 13th player taken in the 2021 MLB Draft to a top 100 prospect who recently has been placed at 25 on MLB Pipelines List (Number 41 on MLBNerds List). So how did a player go from being taken 13th in his draft class to 25th of all MLB prospects in 13 months? I will break down this meteoric rise into three sections: statistics, development gains since the draft, and eye test/physical traits.

Statistics

Andrew Painter’s statistical dominance started from the moment he stepped onto an affiliated field. In 2021 he made 4 short FCL starts in which he threw a total of 6 scoreless innings with 0 walks and 12 strikeouts. This was a small sample size but has proved to be the blueprint for Painter's statistical profile in the minors. He started the 2022 season at Class A Clearwater where he made 9 starts for a total of 38 and two-thirds innings. In Class A he had a 1.40 ERA, allowed 0 home runs, and had 69 strikeouts for an amazing 16.1 K/9 as a striker. He also boasted a 34.0 CSW% and a .240 xwOBA against. On June 6th of this season, Painter was promoted to High-A Jersey Shore where he would continue his dominance. He would only need 8 starts at High A before being promoted to AA Reading. During these 8 starts, he accrued 36.2 innings pitched and an ERA of 0.98, with only 7 walks, and 49 strikeouts. While his strikeout numbers went down, his continued dominance led to an aggressive promotion to AA on August 14th. His AA debut happened on August 21st and he went 6 scoreless innings, striking out 8 batters, allowing 0 walks, and only 3 hits. His combined numbers on the season have been excellent, including leading all pitchers regardless of level in K-BB% as of his promotion to AA (Source).

Development Gains

Andrew Painter sat 93-95 mph in high school and would touch 96 with occasional higher numbers. He was around this velocity during his FCL performances but by October 2021 there were reports from Fall Instructs about Painter throwing 97-100 consistently. These reports went under the radar apparently, as only one prospect site ranked him in their top 100 (Source). This velocity improvement carried over into the season and was a major factor in how dominant Painter was. He also would continue the recent Phillies development trend of focusing on development over results. An example of this is an April start where he threw 70 pitches but only used his slider and fastball generating 20 whiffs on 37 swings (Source). His increased average velocity was evident here and he has been able to hold this velocity as he goes deeper into the season and deeper into games. Painter has a changeup and curveball in addition to his fastball and slider, a rather traditional pitch mix, with all 4 pitches being plus pitches. The Phillies strategy of having Painter focus on his off-speed pitches separately at the lower levels has paid off, as his slider was considered to be somewhat significantly behind his changeup and curveball at the time of the draft, but is now a genuine option as a plus pitch.

Physical Traits/Eye Test

Andrew Painter’s most important trait is his age. Born on April 10th, 2003 he is 19 years old. At the time of his promotion, he was the second youngest player in AA, 5 days older than Marlins sensation Eury Perez according to Phillies prospect writer Matt Winkleman (Source). For Painter to be this advanced at only 19 years of age and to have made as much progress as he did in his first year in the Phillies organization is incredibly promising for his future. Painter has an impressive physique, being listed at a massive 6’7” 215 lbs, and he still has room to physically mature as he is just 19. Often guys of that stature have difficulty with their delivery but Painter’s is smooth and he seems to be consistent with it. His delivery has drawn comparisons to future HOF pitcher Justin Verlander.

Painter Delivery

Painter Delivery

Verlander Delivery

Similarity & results

This similarity in delivery coupled with the elite results Painter is achieving has given him tremendous helium as a prospect. I have a bias as a Phillies fan but I believe Painter is the best pitching prospect in the MLB and will continue to rise up everyone's rankings. I suggest everyone get on the bandwagon now because Painter just keeps getting better.