It’s no secret Oneil Cruz has struggled at the plate so far. Seemingly every Pirate fan wanted him not just called up this year, but to break camp with the major league team on the opening day roster. When Cruz finally got the call all the way back on June 20^th, he arrived with a bang. In his 2022 debut against the Cubs, he went 2-5 with a double and 4 RBIs. He then continued to drive in a run in three consecutive games afterwards. Since those late June days though, it has been a big-time battle for Oneil at the plate.

rolling results

Let’s look at some of the numbers thus far for him: .242 OBP, .428 Slugging, 9 HR, 36% K%, 5% BB%, .297 xwOBA through 41 games. The numbers that jump out immediately are the strikeout and walk percentages. Cruz has struggled with strikeouts throughout his career. However, the 36% is high, even for him. In 2021 and 2019, Cruz struck out at 23.4% in 62 games and 25.7% in 25 games at AA, respectively. He also walked at 7.3% and 11% in those years. This led to OBPs of .346 in both years.

Freak athlete

So how does the 6’7'' freak athlete turn this all around? It’s easy right? Just strikeout less and walk more. That is easier said than done. Now, you do hope that as he learns and matures in the majors, those numbers naturally regress. However, if the discipline doesn’t improve soon, it could be a long journey until he really becomes one of the best hitters in the game. He is swinging at pitches out of the zone at almost 40% and swinging at pitches in the zone at about 55%. He is about 10 percentage points behind the average in both of those categories. Generally, about a 30% chase rate and 55% swing rate on pitches in the zone are about average. Those numbers aren’t inflated by the fact that he is swinging a lot either. He is swinging at pitches at almost an exactly average rate at 45% (FanGraphs describes the average as 46%). These numbers have led to mediocre contact numbers.

POTENTIAL BREAKOUT

Where does the hope for Cruz come then? Well, there are 2 things. For one, he has only played 43 major league games and is still just 23 years old. The Pirates are aware that strikeouts have always been a problem so you would expect them to be working with him on his plate discipline heavily. If he can continue to work on the discipline and just move his strikeout and walk percentages near his minor league numbers, you would expect some more success over the next few years. And of course, there is the power. Cruz’s hard-hit rate according to FanGraphs so far is 38.9% and he has a fly ball rate of almost 35%. I would expect both of those numbers to even increase when the plate discipline and maturity start to improve. And any player that is in what I like to call the 40-40 club (40% hard hit rate, 40% fly ball rate), is someone that is typically already a superstar, or on the cusp of becoming one. He also has a .224 ISO and is on an almost a 36-home run pace through 41 games this year, which is exactly what the Pirates need. We are in the era where you need superstars and big-time power hitters to genuinely contend for a championship.

IMprovement

So, what can Cruz really become in the majors? It depends on the plate-discipline. If he can improve that, he will become a superstar. He is too good of an athlete and hits the ball too hard to not be. If he doesn’t, he could continue to struggle. People have often compared him to Aaron Judge early in his career. In Judge’s breakout year where he hit 52 home runs in 2017, he struck out at 30% and walked at 18.7%. Over Judge’s career, his walk rate has decreased a little, but so have his strikeouts. Cruz doesn’t need to drastically decrease his strikeout rate. If he could just get it to something below 30% (or even close to his minor league percentages) and take some more walks, he has 35-50 homer potential.