Nelson Velazquez Has the Potential to be a part of the Cubs Next Great Core.

Nelson Velazquez has now hit 100 Plate Appearances in the Majors. And, suffice to say, he’s been pretty good! The Arizona Fall League MVP has flown out to a 119 wRC+ on the back of his first career 3-hit game, and although he seems to be a bit streaky, he’s on pace for a 3 fWAR season, and I do like what I’ve seen out of him so far.

Digging deeper

So far, Nelson has made incredibly good swing decisions. (I will note that everything here is according to StatCast). He gets thrown pitches in the zone about 50.1% of the time-that is slightly above the league average of 48.5%. How often does he swing at those? 74.9% of the time-which ranks in the 88th percentile among all batters with at least 100 plate appearances. Beyond that, the guy just doesn’t chase either. His 21.7% chase rate also ranks in the 88th percentile. There is just one other player even in the 85th percentile or higher in both of those-Brandon Belt. I mean, there are only seven other players who are in the 75th percentile or higher in both of those aspects. I mean, his chase rate is the same as some notable players like Brandon Nimmo and Adley Rutschman. It’s better than fellow rookie Outfielder Seiya Suzuki-known for his discipline when he came to the Cubs from Japan. It’s better than Yordan freakin Alvarez who might be an 8.0+ WAR designated hitter! It’s better than Joey Votto who has some of the best discipline of this past decade. Now, a lot of these don’t really mean much, but I think we can come to the overwhelming conclusion that Nelly makes very good swing decisions. Which is obviously great. But if all of this is true, then why on earth does Velazquez have seemingly bad discipline? He, after all has just an 8.9 BB% and a 29.7 K%.

too many whiffs

Well, Velazquez unfortunately whiffs a LOT. 38% of the time, in fact, which is a sparkling 3rd percentile. So, yeah-it is very easy to see why despite his very good swing decision, his zone contact rate is first percentile, and, more importantly, the Out of Zone Contact Rate is just 7th percentile-all this which probably leads to a relative (although not complete) lack of walks, and a high strikeout rate. However, the best way to draw a walk is to simply not swing. Not that he doesn’t swing, but his overall swing% is right around the league average. All this being said, I obviously really like what this dude has shown at the plate in terms of his swing decisions. It makes me a lot more confident than I initially was in him.

power prowess

Velazquez has, to put it mildly, some pretty nice power on him. It has really exploded since the non-minor league season of 2020; in 2019 at Low-A he had just a .137 ISO-since then his power has somewhat exploded. In ‘21, he hit 20 Home runs in 425 PA’s and had an ISO at .222-this year in the minors it was .286. He’s backed it up in the majors, too, hitting at a .250 Isolated Power-which is 95th percentile, to go along with a barrel rate that is in the 96th percentile. When he makes contact, he makes GOOD contact. He sports a 90.5 Average Exit Velocity with good launch angle (hence the high barrel rate, of course). His xwOBACON is 95th percentile!! (And fellow Cubs rookie Christopher Morel actually sits one spot ahead of him in that category).

making Contact

When the guy puts the ball in play, it usually goes pretty well. However, Velazquez does not have a particularly good hit tool. His stdev (LA) (Standard Deviation of the launch Angle-basically how consistent the launch angle is)-is at 30°-which ranks in just the 28th percentile among these hitters. Having a tighter launch angle generally means you are able to control your BABIP better, and thus have a higher batting average and hit tool. His line drive thus far is also just 3rd percentile, so he probably will not ever carry a high BABIP or high batting average-but that is okay. More than just okay. (Although, that being said, he has carried a higher line drive rate in the minors-so who knows. I still think it is very unlikely he will ever really have a good hit tool.) But, again, I am not super concerned about that! His combination of very good raw power-and thus far, very good game power along with very good discipline should help him to be a very, very good hitter.

defense & base running

Now, as for Nelly’s defense and base running, it certainly has not been great yet; he is decently fast right now, in the 67th percentile for sprint speed. And his defensive metrics have been below average so far, but they also take a while to stabilize-he has just 213.1 Innings in the outfield so far. That being said, the last two seasons across AA and AAA he has 7.3 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) while posting good Davenport Runs in the minors as well-so I believe there is potential for some good defense here, especially in the corner outfield.

final thoughts

I really hope that the Cubs start to give Nelly some more playing time. For some reason Rafael Ortega keeps getting playing time over him, which I am not really a fan of but that is a completely different topic of conversation. Regardless, an exciting up and coming young prospect with a pretty unique and fun skilset for the Cubs that you can get excited about!