Deadline Time: The Real Contenders
(Via VivaElBirdos)
Deadline Time: The Real Contenders
We have reached that time in the MLB season where most teams must decide whether they are going to make a run for glory or prepare for the future. There are many teams that are expected to be heavy buyers such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and the Houston Astros. Among the leagues’ sellers include teams such as the Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland Athletics, Cincinnati Reds, Kansas City Royals, and Chicago Cubs. At this time, it is usually clear who the buyers and sellers are, but due to a change in the MLB Playoffs format, it is expected for more teams in the middle of the pack to buy at this year’s trade deadline and make a run for it.
There is plenty to be excited about at this year’s deadline with the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Willson Contreras, and even generational talent Juan Soto being available for teams. First, let me make the point in saying that I think every team should trade for Juan Soto, but I only listed him where I believe he fits best. Let’s take a dive into what each team should do to make a run for glory.
New York Yankees:
The Yankees have been the most consistent and best team in baseball hands down throughout the year. Their pitching and bullpen have been good for the most part, and they have been getting help from some unlikely heroes such as Matt Carpenter, Jose Trevino, Clay Holmes, and Nestor Cortes Jr. As good as the Yankees have been, they look like they still cannot beat the Houston Astros which means there is still work to be done. Breakout relief pitcher Michael King fractured his elbow against the Baltimore Orioles on Friday and is done for the season which is devastating for this team. Expect Brian Cashman to be very aggressive with his job on the line, and maybe even expect a Juan Soto deal.
Trade for:
- Juan Soto OF (Nationals, 3.5 WAR)- .245/.401/.484/.886, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .886 OPS, 157 OPS+
- Ian Happ OF (Cubs, 2.8 WAR)- .279/.366/.441, 9 HR, 44 RBI, .807 OPS, 126 OPS+
- Luis Castillo SP (Reds, 3.2 WAR)- 2.77 ERA, 78.0 IP, 1.077 WHIP, 3.05 FIP, 166 ERA+ 9.5 SO/9
- David Robertson RP (Cubs, 2.3 WAR)- 1.83 ERA, 39.1 IP, .992 WHIP, 3.26 FIP, 232 ERA+, 11.4 SO/9
Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays somehow find themselves winning again, currently in control of the second wild card in the American League. The Rays have been destroyed by injuries to big names all season such as Wander Franco, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, Manuel Margot, Luis Patiño, and Kevin Kiermaier. The breakout of Shane McClanahan as a superstar has significantly helped this team, along with Ji-Man Choi, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Isaac Paredes, and Harold Ramirez contributing. Expect the Rays to be aggressive at the deadline, but it would take a lot of pieces to turn this team into a true contender.
Trade for:
- Bryan Reynolds OF (Pirates, 1.9 WAR)- .261/.343/.465, 15 HR, 32 RBI, .808 OPS, 127 OPS+
- Jose Quintana SP (Pirates, 1.8 WAR)- 3.70 ERA, 97.1 IP, 1.284 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 113 ERA+, 7.9 SO/9
- Willson Contreras C (Cubs, 2.8 WAR)- .258/.372/.471, 14 HR, 37 RBI, .844 OPS, 136 OPS+
Toronto Blue Jays:
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the more disappointing teams in the MLB this season. Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alek Manoah, and Kevin Gausman have been amazing, but experts predicted the Blue Jays to be the clear leader in the AL East before the season. Currently, they sit in the first wild card spot, a half game ahead of the Rays. The Jays fired their manager Charlie Montoyo, in hopes of some immediate changes, and it has looked to pay off so far as they are 8-1 since his firing. Expect the Blue Jays to be aggressive in the starting pitching market, along with adding another solid bat.
Trade for:
- Luis Castillo SP (Reds, 3.2 WAR)- 2.77 ERA, 78.0 IP, 1.077 WHIP, 3.05 FIP, 166 ERA+ 9.5 SO/9
- Paul Blackburn SP (Oakland Athletics, 1.2 WAR)- 4.35 ERA, 101.1 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 3.93 FIP, 86 ERA+, 7.3 SO/9
- Brandon Drury INF/OF (Reds, 1.7 WAR)- .274/.332/.517, 18 HR, 54 RBI, .850 OPS, 126 OPS+
Boston Red Sox:
After a terrible start to the season the Boston Red Sox are back, or are they? After going on a big run in May and June, Boston looked poised for October, but after getting swept by Tampa and losing two of three to the Yankees, and getting swept by Toronto, the Red Sox are done. Their starting pitching is horrible, and their bullpen is not much better. With Chris Sale breaking his finger in his first start back, and Bogaerts’ future being unlikely, the Sox have a lot of work to do. With Rafael Devers now banged up, and players looking uninspired on the field, it is time for the Red Sox to go into sell mode. Expect J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi to be traded.
What should they do?
- Sell!!!!
Minnesota Twins:
The Minnesota Twins have quietly become one of the most underrated teams in baseball, even while holding control of the weak AL Central for most of the season. The Twins have been led by the bats of Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, and their solid starting rotation for most of the season. Rookie RHP Joe Ryan, who was traded for Nelson Cruz in 2021, is the young ace for this Twins pitching staff, with some help from Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, and Dylan Bundy. The Twins are not exactly a team expected to make some noise in October, but this is a young talented team that has a fun future ahead of them.
Trade for:
- JD Martinez OF/DH (Red Sox, 1.4 WAR)- .302/.368/.481, 9 HR, 38 RBI, .849 OPS, 132 OPS+
- Madison Bumgarner SP- (Diamondbacks, 1.1 WAR)- 3.71 ERA, 104.1 IP, 1.332 WHIP, 4.50 FIP, 109 ERA+, 6.7 SO/9
- Anthony Bass RP- (Marlins, 1.4 WAR)- 1.51 ERA, 41.2 IP, .960 WHIP, 1.95 FIP, 272 ERA+, 9.3 SO/9
Chicago White Sox:
The White Sox along with their Hall of Fame manager, have been nothing short of a nightmare so far this year. Although they only sit 3 games back from the Wild Card, they have severely under exceeded expectations. Aside from Dylan Cease, the White Sox have had nothing but inconsistency from their starting pitching and have been hampered with injuries throughout their whole roster. Injuries have been crucial to the White Sox, but they have had many players such as Yoan Moncada, AJ Pollock, Yasmani Grandal, Leury Garcia, Lucas Giolito, and Lance Lynn have been extremely disappointing. This is a team that will most likely not being playing October baseball, and have a long way to go until they are.
What should they do?
- Fire Tony LaRussa
- Hope for better next season
Houston Astros:
There is not much that needs to be said about the Houston Astros other than that they are amazing. The Astros sit atop the AL West in complete control of first place, while looking to only get better. While they have somewhat of a hole at the catcher position, they have the most complete team in baseball. With a rotation made up of Verlander, Valdez, Garcia, Javier, and Urquidy along with a lineup made up of Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, Gurriel, and Peña will be nearly impossible to beat. Along with their great bats and starting pitching they also have the best bullpen in the league. Expect the Astros to make a few moves at the deadline, and be back in the ALCS come October.
Trade for:
- Willson Contreras C (Cubs, 2.8 WAR)- .258/.372/.471, 14 HR, 37 RBI, .844 OPS, 136 OPS+
- Scott Barlow RP (Royals, 2.3 WAR)- 1.97 ERA, 45.2 IP, .985 WHIP, 3.61 FIP, 210 ERA+ 8.7 SO/9
- Brandon Drury INF/OF (Reds, 1.7 WAR)- .274/.332/.517, 18 HR, 54 RBI, .850 OPS, 126 OPS+
Seattle Mariners:
After a heartbreaking end to last season, the Seattle Mariners had a lot to look forward to for 2021, especially after acquiring Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker, and Adam Frazier. Although the season started out slow, the Mariners won 14 games in a row, and have moved into a Wild Card spot in the American League, led by rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez and former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray.
The Mariners are a team that seems to have great chemistry, and can beat anyone when they get hot, but can they compete with the Yankees and the Astros? Time will tell, but the Mariners will need to trade for another starting pitcher and a second baseman, because Frazier is clearly not working out. They already traded for Carlos Santana which has worked out so far, but do not expect Seattle to be quiet at the deadline because they are desperate to end their historic playoff drought. Seattle is another team expected to pursue Juan Soto.
Trade for:
- Juan Soto OF (Nationals, 3.5 WAR)- .245/.401/.484, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .886 OPS, 157 OPS+
- Ketel Marte- (Diamondbacks, 2.1 WAR)- .271/.360/.462, 9 HR, 34 RBI, .822 OPS, 133 OPS+
- Merrill Kelly SP (Diamondbacks, 2.3 WAR)- 3.26 ERA, 110.1 IP, 1.205 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 7.3 SO/9
Already Acquired:
- Carlos Santana 1B/DH from Kansas City Royals.
National League
The NL is filled with competitive teams this season that may make a run at a playoff spot, but has plenty of teams at the bottom who may be willing to offload significant pieces.
New York Mets:
The Mets entered this season with high expectations, but I don’t think anyone expected them to be where they are today sitting at 59-37, holding first place in the NL East. New York survived the injury to Max Scherzer, who has been nothing short of excellent, while the status of Jacob deGrom remains a question mark. For the Mets to prove they are for real; they must have a more stable bullpen and add another bat to the lineup. Although the Mets already picked up Daniel Vogelbach, expect them to acquire Trey Mancini to platoon with him. Look for the Mets to try to trade prospects other than Francisco Alvarez or Brett Baty unless it is in a Juan Soto deal.
Trade for:
- 1B/OF Trey Mancini (Baltimore Orioles,
1.7 WAR )-.268/.345/.404, 9 HR, 37 RBI, .749 OPS, 113 OPS+,
- David Robertson RP (Cubs, 2.3 WAR)- 1.83 ERA, 39.1 IP, .992 WHIP, 3.26 FIP, 232 ERA+, 11.4 SO/9
- Martin Perez SP (Rangers, 3.4 WAR)- 2.59 ERA, 118 IP, 1.178 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 153 ERA+, 87.7 SO/9
Already Acquired:
- Daniel Vogelbach 1B/DH from Pittsburgh
Atlanta Braves:
After a slow start to the season, the defending World Series Champions are out for blood once again. The Braves are one of the few teams in baseball with minimal holes in their lineup, even after losing Freddie Freeman in free agency. Ronald Acuña is almost back to his old self, Austin Riley is having a career year, and Matt Olson is filling the shoes of Freeman the best he can. Another part of the success of this year’s Braves team is two rookies, outfielder Michael Harris II and starting pitcher Spencer Strider. The Braves currently stand 1.5 games behind the Mets, and with a strong comeback by Ozzie Albies, and a turn-around from Ian Anderson and Charlie Morton, this squad will be ready to beat anyone come October.
Trade for:
- Brandon Drury INF/OF (Reds, 1.7 WAR)- .274/.332/.517, 18 HR, 54 RBI, .850 OPS, 126 OPS+
- Gregory Soto CP (Detroit Tigers, .7 WAR)- 2.56 ERA, 31.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 3.41 FIP 155 ERA+, 9.1 SO/9
- Charlie Blackmon OF/DH (Rockies, 1.3 WAR)- .278/.329/.478, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .807 OPS, 115 OPS+
Philadelphia Phillies:
Not going to spend much time talking about a Phillies team that might sneak into the playoffs as the third wild card team. The Phillies have significantly underperformed up until this point, and even fired their World Series winning manager Joe Girardi. Although they have turned it around a bit under Rob Thomson, the injury to Bryce Harper and the lack of consistency from both starting and relief pitchers will ultimately be the reason this is yet another hopeless year for Philadelphia fans. Not to mention, Nick Castellanos has been one of the worst players in the MLB this season, accumulating a WAR of -1.2 so far. Coming into the season the big question was “Can a team win that is as bad defensively as the Phillies?” and the answer is no.
What should they do?
The Phillies should sell what they want and look to the offseason and next season to fix up the mistakes they made this year.
Milwaukee Brewers:
The Milwaukee Brewers came into the season as the favorites once again to win the NL Central. They currently sit atop the historically weak division, with many needs for their lineup. While the team ranks among the middle of the pack in pitching, they are a bottom 10 offensive team. With Christian Yelich not being the player he once was, and the pitching not being as strong as expected, the Brewers are lucky to be in the position they are today. While some players on the Brew Crew have produced such as Yelich, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez and Jace Peterson, they do not have a qualified hitter with an OPS of over .775, which is a major problem. Milwaukee must go out and get a few bats and maybe an arm if they are down to make a run.
Trade for:
- Andrew Benintendi OF (Royals, WAR 2.3)- .317/.387/.398, 3 HR, 39 RBI, .785 OPS, 123 OPS+
- Nelson Cruz DH (Nationals, .2 WAR)- .234/.318/.349, 8 HR, 48 RBI, OPS .667, OPS+ 95
- Merrill Kelly SP (Diamondbacks, 2.3 WAR)- 3.26 ERA, 110.1 IP, 1.205 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 124 ERA+, 7.3 SO/9
St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are another member of the NL Central that has been a little disappointing after a magical season last year. They currently sit two and a half games behind the Milwaukee Brewers and should probably be in first if it weren’t for a few blown games. However, the Cardinals are the best defensive team in baseball, and although people like to discount defense, it matters very much. The Cardinals also have one of the best infields in baseball with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman and rookie Nolan Gorman. Recently, the Cardinals along with the Padres have been involved in talks for Juan Soto, and a move like that would be perfect for this team, or any team for that matter. I believe the Cardinals are a team we have not seen the best of yet and can make a world series run come October, if they make the correct moves.
Trade for:
- Juan Soto OF (Washington Nationals, 3.5 WAR)- .245/.401/.484, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .886 OPS, 157 OPS+
- Noah Syndergaard SP (Angels, .9 WAR)- 4.00 ERA, 74.1 IP, 1.197 WHIP, 4.07 FIP, 100 ERA+, 7.0 SO/9
- Sean Murphy C (Athletics, 1.7 WAR)- .245/.320/.428, 11 HR, 40 RBI, .748 OPS, 117 OPS+
- David Bednar RP (Pirates, WAR 1.1)- 2.96 ERA, 45.2 IP, 1.095 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 142 ERA+ 12.0 SO/9
Los Angeles Dodgers:
Not much needs to be said about the Dodgers, as they are the clear top dog in the National League. They are said to be looking for another starting pitcher, and they will most likely add another bat at the deadline. Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Julio Urias, and Clayton Kershaw have all been spectacular in the absence of Walker Buehler, while Freddie Freeman seems like a good fit so far even if his heart is still in Atlanta. Of course, you cannot count out the Dodgers of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, as he would fit perfectly in that outfield. Even if the Dodgers can’t get Soto, look for them to trade for another outfielder, and go for Soto in free agency in three years, assuming he gets there.
Trade for:
- Juan Soto OF (Nationals, 3.5 WAR)- .245/.401/.484/, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .886 OPS, 157 OPS+
- Frankie Montas SP (Athletics, 1.7 WAR)- 3.16 ERA, 99.2 IP, 1.084 WHIP, 3.24 FIP, 118 ERA+, 9.5 SO/9
- Joe Mantiply RP (Diamondbacks, 1.0 WAR) 2.39 ERA, 37.2 IP, .0982 WHIP, 2.54 FIP, 171 ERA+, 9.1 SO/9
San Diego Padres:
The San Diego Padres are one of the MLB’s most interesting teams. After a massive disappointment in 2021, the Padres are once again looking good, but this time without Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres currently hold the 2nd wild card spot, and that is where I predict they will remain for the rest of the season. Tatis Jr. will hopefully come back at the perfect time to make a playoff push, and the Padres will hope Joe Musgrove and Manny Machado will continue to perform the way they have been. It will be essential for Blake Snell and Sean Manaea to step up if this team wants to win the World Series because they have simply underperformed. This team is another team that is a favorite to land Juan Soto, but needs outfield help with or without him.
Trade for:
- Juan Soto OF (Nationals, 3.5 WAR)- .245/.401/.484/, 20 HR, 43 RBI, .886 OPS, 157 OPS+
- Bryan Reynolds OF (Pirates, 1.9 WAR)- .261/.343/.465, 15 HR, 32 RBI, .808 OPS, 127 OPS+
- Michael Fulmer RP (Detroit Tigers, .5 WAR)- 3.00 ERA, 36.0 IP, 1.222 WHIP, 3.38 FIP, 132 ERA+, 8.8 SO/9
- JD Martinez OF/DH (Boston Red Sox, 1.4 WAR)- .302/.368/.481, 9 HR, 38 RBI, .849 OPS, 132 OPS+
San Francisco Giants:
I could sit here and write a paragraph about how average the Giants are, but I do not think it's worth it. The Giants are a team that is carried by their pitching, but the club's severely below average hitting will not be able to bring them to the playoffs. The losses of Kris Bryant and Buster Posey have killed this team, while Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford have fallen off. Although the Carlos Rodon and Joc Pederson signings have exceeded expectations, every other part of the season has been a bit disappointing. Do not be surprised if this team sneaks into the playoffs as the third wild card.
What should they do?
The San Francisco Giants should stay put, maybe even trade for a few low level hitters with upside.
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