The past two seasons, Alex Cobb has been a particularly interesting case study. His numbers seem to contradict each other constantly, but before we get to that, what has led up to the last two seasons? From 2011-2020, Cobb was a respectable workhorse pitcher for the Orioles and Rays. In this stretch he posted a 3.88 ERA, 4.05 FIP, while sustaining an ERA+ of 104. He also had 7.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 1 HR/9. Cobb was never an all-star, or in any Cy Young voting, but was overall an average pitcher who ate up innings. Prior to the 2021 season, the Orioles traded Cobb, who was on the last year of his contract, to the Angels.

Evolution

Going into the 2021 season, Cobb was 33 years old and was expected to produce yet another average season, but he outperformed and had an intriguing, and effective season.

2021 with the Angels

18 Games Started

93.1 IP

3.76 ERA

3.95 xERA

2.92 FIP

3.38 xFIP

.315 BABIP

9.45 K9

3.18 BB9

0.48 HR9

8.2% HR/FB%

119 ERA+

Surface Level

At the surface level, looking at just his ERA, ERA+, and his per 9s, he had an extremely good year as he was striking out more batters while allowing next to no home runs. His ERA compared to the rest of the league was very good. However, if we take a step deeper and look at his FIP, BABIP, and HR/FB% his year was even better. This is the lowest FIP of his career, and the lowest HR/FB% since his rookie year in which he just pitched 52.2 innings. His BABIP was also higher than league average, so he was not having the greatest batted ball luck, though if we look just a little bit deeper at his xERA and xFIP, he over performed. Overall Cobb's 2021 season was very solid and a career year for him. This led to Cobb getting a 2 year/20 Million dollar contract with an option for 2024 with the Giants. Thus Far in 2022 he is having another interesting year, but in a different way.

Cobb through july 4th

13 Games Started

63 IP

4.57 ERA

2.85 xERA

3.14 FIP

2.96 xFIP

.339 BABIP

9.0 K9

2.86 BB9

0.71 HR9

13.9% HR/FB%

90 ERA+

rinse and repeat

If we look at Cobb's season using the method we looked at his 2021 season, based on his ERA, ERA+, and per 9s, he is having a poor season. His ERA and ERA+ is far below average, he striking out slightly less and giving up slightly more HRs, but walking a lot less. Now, looking at his FIP, BABIP, and HR/FB%, he is having a much better year. His FIP is excellent, his BABIP shows he has been extremely unlucky, and HR/FB% regressed but is still really solid. Lastly, looking at his xERA and xFIP, he should in theory have an all-star year based of these expected stats. So what has led to these stats? The Giants defense on the year has been very bad, and Cobb is not giving up a lot of hard contact with his HardHit% in the 81st percentile and his Barrel% in the 90th percentile. The Giants bad defense and some bad BABIP luck has led to some particularly stark discrepancies to cumulate in an odd season. It will be fascinating to see how Cobb finishes this season up.